7 agosto 2012

La congiuntura italiana secondo gli ottimisti

Goldman Sachs è da sempre il più bullish tra gli analisti della nostra economia. Eppure, a ruota della pubblicazione dei terribili dati congiunturali ISTAT di questa mattina, la nota banca d'affari non lesina tristezza nel suo commento più recente (in allegato in basso, click sul grafico per ingrandire):

"BOTTOM-LINE: Italian real GDP growth disappointed in the second quarter, at -0.7%qoq non-annualised (0.1% above BBG consensus, and 0.2% below GS forecast) after an already weak -0.8%qoq in the first quarter. The yoy contraction stood at -2.5%. This creates a very weak base for the 2012 growth figure, and mechanically shifting our expectation of a more significant inflection point from Q3 onwards, the "automatic" adjustment of our forecast yields an expected contraction of real GDP of 2.1% in 2012.

1. Real GDP contracting at a sharp pace since the beginning of the year (Chart). Real GDP contracted by 0.7%qoq in Q2, after -0.8%qoq in Q1, a fourth quarter of negative quarterly growth rates. The Q2 figure was a negative surprise that compounds an already bleak performance in Q1. Looking forward, leading indicators do not point to any significant improvement in Q3.

2. No details on GDP components, but decline likely to be broad based. ISTAT does not publish the details of its first GDP estimate, but stated that activity contracted in agriculture, industry and services. Given past developments, we will pay particular attention to private sector investment, which has declined significantly in Q1 (from -2.6%qoq in 2011Q4 to -3.6%qoq), stuck at around 25% below its 2007 peak.

3. Industrial Production disappointed in June. Released earlier this morning, the June industrial production figure turned out weaker than expected (-1.4%mom sa, -1.7% for Q2 as a whole, and a steep -8.2%yoy sa). The negative dynamics was almost evenly shared across non-energy industrial sectors (consumer, investment and intermediate goods).

4. Italy under close macroeconomic scrutiny over coming quarters. The recessionary dynamic is likely to mechanically weaken tax revenues this year, creating hurdles for the fiscal consolidation that is otherwise well underway. Looking forward, we will be very vigilant about the GDP components when the second GDP estimate is released. We believe that the domestic economy - in particular private sector consumption and investment - currently faces strong headwinds (fiscal adjustment, financing conditions) that may end up harming sequential growth dynamics by more than we currently foresee."

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